What Will the Morrow Bring?

Iran's leaders are far too serious and dedicated to promise something big and then not follow up with it. Whatever it is, it has to be something substantial enough to merit the very value they have placed on it.

Here are the "top" candidates of what Iran's "joyous news" will be:

a. Doomsday- Multiple Warhead Missile/Cruise Missile Attack on the US, Israel, the UK and Salman Rushdie
Western Intelligence is weak but it is hard to see how they could field nuclear weapons without first testing them. Unless of course they just bought them from Pakistan, or the fissile material from Pakistan and mounted the material on Pakistani based bomb platforms they purchased from the A.Q. Khan nuclear ring.

b. Doomsday Lite- Suitcase Bomb Attack- Soviet accounting was never very good and there is very little in the New Russia that cannot be bought. The bombs have been smuggled into a couple of target cities and let's just say rush hour will never be the same.

c. Hi! We Have Nukes- Nuclear Test- Nothing speaks louder than a loud boom. Iran thinks the west are bunch of punks and will wilt in the face of a nuclear armed enemy.

d. Our Friends Have Nukes Too- Joint Nuclear Test or Simultaneous Test With North Korea If you are going to make a big boom, why not share the fun with a friend?

e. Do We Or Don't We?- Announcing They Have The Bomb This is less telling and harder to prove but it certainly makes the west make a gut check on whether they are willing to confront a potential nuclear enemy.

f. We Want The Bomb- Announcing Decision to Develop the Bomb Iran has said they will give their answer to the international community on 8/22; what could be more joyous than telling the whole world to shove it where the sun never shines?

g. Dirty Bomb Attack- Islamic Gottdammerung Iran and its agents have smuggled in some dirty bombs and will be letting them go tomorrow.

Analysis- US nuclear intelligence has "ballparked" Iran at early enrichment. They are believed to be using the Pakistani cascading centrifuge system of enrichment. Most analysts believe they have not yet got the big one through their own efforts. While money can buy anything, my feeling is that Iran's leaders would have long ago exploded a test bomb if they could lay their hands on it, if only to discourage western interference in their overall program.

The x factor is Iran had already acquired suitcase nukes and when Ahmadinejad and his fellow cultists came in to power they immediately dialed up their Islamic calendar and ordered the attacks for 8/22 for its double significance: Mohammeds Midnight Voyage and Saladin's conquest of Jerusalem.

Other reports need to be factored in: the British Airliner Plot and US satellite intelligence of North Korea possibly preparing for a nuke test. We know that the British plot was caught just before the dry run preceding the actual attack. The "martyrdom" tapes had been done, so the attacks was imminent. Al Qaeda and Iran are closely allied. So two questions follow: 1) if Iran was involved, did Iran plan similar attacks from other airports? 2) Were the attacks to happen today? It is now 8-22 somewhere!

While we cannot rule out the bigger doomsday scenarios, their likelihood, in comparison to the last four possibilities, is thankfully low. But not completely out of the picture. I expect a lot of people will not be showing up for work in DC and New York tomorrow, buildings we can replace. The dirty bomb attack would result in the very same nuclear retaliation as the other attacks listed above. I do not believe the Iranians would do something certain to result in their destruction if they don't completely destroy the US and Israel. They want to die for a reason.